« The dollar is stable, the market is calm »
Since the unification of the exchange rate (2025), the gap between the official and parallel dollar (the brecha) is small and the market seems calm.
But this calm is bought: it holds thanks to incoming debt and speculative capital (the carry trade) attracted by high rates — « hot » money that leaves at the first doubt. Meanwhile, Argentines continue to pull out dollars massively (capital flight, or FAE): tens of billions per year, which cancel out the trade surplus. The apparent calm masks a hemorrhage of foreign currency.
When the red curve (gap in %) climbs, the market no longer believes in the official rate. Today the gap is contained.
« Tarjeta » and « cripto » are the most expensive dollars paid by Argentines; the gap measures the distortion.
Capital flight (FAE): the dollars bought and pulled out by households and businesses. The cumulative curve shows the scale since Milei's arrival.
Green = holding pesos beat the dollar (the « bicicleta » spins, capital stays). Red = the dollar won (incentive to flee).
The speculative (portfolio) capital flowing in and out. The October 2025 peak coincides with the financial support from the United States.