🇦🇷 La Otra Cara

The other side of Argentina's economy — beyond the few figures repeated to say all is well.

« Reserves are being rebuilt »

We hear that the Central Bank has « bought back dollars » and rebuilt its reserves. The gross figure (≈ 47 billion) is rising, that's true.

But this figure adds up dollars that do not belong to it: the swap with China (debt in yuan), the dollar deposits of savers (the encajes), loans from the IMF. Once these liabilities are removed, the net reserves — what the country truly owns — are close to zero, or even negative. And the rise comes mainly from debt, not from real currency purchases. The « cushion » is therefore largely borrowed.

Where the rise in reserves since Dec. 2023 comes from: a dollar bought does not have the same value as a dollar borrowed from the IMF or deposited by a bank.

The dollar counterpart: to avoid devaluing further, the BCRA issued this debt in foreign currency (BOPREAL) rather than paying cash — a future bill on the reserves.